How many raters does it take to make a million? (part 3)

Reads 5390 • Replies 99 • Started Thursday, April 13, 2017 10:47:51 AM CT

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FatPhil
beers 18946 º places 717 º 10:47 Thu 4/13/2017

Continuing http://www.ratebeer.com/forums/just-a-funny-stat-i-was-wondering-about_283585.htm and https://www.ratebeer.com/forums/how-many-raters-does-it-take-to-make-a-million_289473.htm ...

The answer’s now just 55!

Stuu666 continued his charge upwards, leaving jcwattsrugger on the bubble just 3 days ago, and now the bubble’s burst. Stuu666 was going fast enough to leave not himself, but thewolf now in the critical 55th position.

Date: Thu, 13 Apr 2017 17:09:18 +0300 (EEST)
#55 thewolf with 12349 takes total from 987686 to 1000035
#164 Radek Kliber with 7274 takes total from 1997778 to 2005052
#334 RichardGretton with 4737 takes total from 2998162 to 3002899
#603 JohnC with 3008 takes total from 3997468 to 4000476
#1034 closey22 with 1850 takes total from 4999767 to 5001617

The day when we only need 1000 raters to reach 5 million ratings really isn’t far away now, probably not next month, but definitely the month after. And the day when we need only 50 to make the million is beginning seem scarily closer - possibly even this year!

Graphs updated at: http://fatphil.org/tmp/RB_Millions.png

 
fiulijn
beers 25110 º places 725 º 12:07 Thu 4/13/2017

Since you have some extrapolation, predict how many raters will take for 1m on June 30 and December 31, and then we will get back here and check

 
fiulijn
beers 25110 º places 725 º 12:08 Thu 4/13/2017

Also, if I stop rating, predict when my ~20000 ratings won’t be required anymore to contribute to the 1m club.

 
FatPhil
beers 18946 º places 717 º 12:42 Thu 4/13/2017

Long-term extrapolation would be futile as the first question’s curves are far from straight, but while there are many tens of people, they should be pretty OK for a while. When I get back to the laptop I’ll put some more lines onto the charts, and see what they say.

Theoretically I can answer the final question now, as I have the regression equation. It looks like it will happen on day "44106", which is year "120.75", so if dates start counting from 1900, which seems plausable, that’s the start of October 2020. Don’t hold me to that, it’s a very distant extrapolation.

 
FatPhil
beers 18946 º places 717 º 12:45 Thu 4/13/2017

Oooh, I didn’t notice your extra 190 ratings, that’s worth another month at least!

 
Benzai
beers 20025 º places 321 º 15:11 Thu 4/13/2017

Awesome stats again Phil!! I wonder when it will happen, 5m ratings with less than 1k raters!

 
FatPhil
beers 18946 º places 717 º 17:31 Thu 4/13/2017

Originally posted by fiulijn
Since you have some extrapolation, predict how many raters will take for 1m on June 30 and December 31, and then we will get back here and check


LibreOffice charts are braindead - the integer-valued points don’t lie on the integer-valued minor grid-marks that I asked it to show, so I had to do a bit of eyeballing. The line at Jun 30 seems to say we’ll lose 2 by then, which fits in with what we’ve seen recently. For Dec 31, it’s hard to tell, but it looks like 7 will be removed. By then the curve should have leveled out significantly, so that is perhaps an over-estimate.

Let’s call it:
Jun 30=53
Dec 31=48

 
FatPhil
beers 18946 º places 717 º 17:44 Thu 4/13/2017

Originally posted by Benzai
Awesome stats again Phil!! I wonder when it will happen, 5m ratings with less than 1k raters!


With only 35 to lose, and losing ~30 per time interval that loses 1 in the million band, and that last 2 bands being 35 and 39 days, it would seem likely that it will take ~44 days, I guess. May 28th?

5M’s not a stat that I follow accurately, I get regular reports on the 1M band, but only see the other stats when the 1M band changes number. I could change my script, I guess...

 
FatPhil
beers 18946 º places 717 º 04:23 Tue 5/16/2017

Trouper that he is, Crossovert found a whole mass of backlog last night, and has dived back into the scrum!

#55 crossovert with 12411 takes total from 999114 to 1011525, 92.8% of the way

However, as you can see, he might not stay there long - this weekend, max - unless he’s got several more pages...

 
TheHOFF43
beers 2045 º places 169 º 06:33 Tue 5/16/2017

I might have to rate some beers to keep myself as part of the 5 million...and speed that process up.

Cool stats. Thanks for sharing.

 
FatPhil
beers 18946 º places 717 º 17:01 Thu 5/18/2017

Down to 54!

Date: Thu, 18 May 2017 23:09:51 +0300 (EEST)
#54 Bov with 12606 takes total from 987512 to 1000118
#161 jonas with 7465 takes total from 1999516 to 2006981
#326 presario with 4916 takes total from 2995444 to 3000360
#588 Marsiblursi with 3076 takes total from 3999108 to 4002184
#1003 topherh with 1928 takes total from 4999110 to 5001038

And the predictions:
>> 5m ratings with less than 1k raters!
> May 28th?

Looks like there have been some festivals recently, as that band took only 35 days, so we’ll beat that guestimate easily.