How many raters does it take to make a million? (part 3)

Reads 5523 • Replies 99 • Started Thursday, April 13, 2017 10:47:51 AM CT

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FatPhil
beers 19170 º places 724 º 23:51 Mon 10/9/2017

Originally posted by Benzai
How is the pace Phil, still even pace or slowing / speeding?


This one took 43 days, the longest ever. And despite the extra length of time that was available, the other bands didn't kick out an unusually large number of people:
http://fatphil.org/tmp/RB_Millions.png

Some new graphs that intend to show the effort put in by each band, and also by per person in the band, seem to indicate that this was a relatively slow month in most bands:
http://fatphil.org/tmp/RB_Millions_work.png

Regarding whining, being top raters these are the people with the most invested in the hobby, they are the one-percenters of ratebeer numerically, so they'd be more inclined to continue rating no matter what.

 
Gurthnar
beers 8024 º places 22 º 02:24 Tue 10/10/2017

With 6150 ratings I barely make the 3m band, huh :D I hoped for the 2m :D

But if I understand the statistics correctly, it seems that with my 2,89 ratings per day, I am pretty safe to get there someday if it will not kick out people crazy fast.

But on the contrary, I would need to triple my pace to at least get a chance of reaching the 1m band someday in the distant future. Which still would not do as people will slowly continue to get kicked out and the per day average of the band will rise. Probably faster than in the lower bands. Crazy numbers :D

 
FatPhil
beers 19170 º places 724 º 02:35 Tue 10/10/2017

The "stay in 3m" rate is presently 3.4496 per day, so you're 0.56/day short = i.e. slowly dropping out. However, you do have 700 in hand, so you should be safe for a fair while. I'm not prepared to put any credibility behind a prediction of 700/0.56=1250d=3y5m, which is mid-march 2021, but don't mind throwing out there just for a laugh.

 
LazyPyro
beers 4254 º places 58 º 03:05 Tue 10/10/2017

I guess I got into beer too late to ever reach the higher bands, however if I understood your graphs correctly I should eventually get into the 5m band quite easily should I keep up my current pace (usually 3-4 rates per day)?

So the person in "last place" of the 5m band has 2208 rates and those in that band average just 0.33 rates per day.
As of writing this I have 1441 and average 3-4 per day (we'll say 3 for the sake of this thought).
(2208-1441) = 767 ... 767 / 3 = 255. So in 255 days from now I will have caught the person in last place, but by then he will be on (2208 + (255*0.33)) = 2296, so it will actually take a bit longer than that. Also, the rate of the top 1% moving so much faster means that last place position will go up too... so I guess I'll need at least another entire year of rating beers to even come close to the 5m band :/

 
FatPhil
beers 19170 º places 724 º 06:23 Tue 10/10/2017

The 5M band is creeping forward at 1.9318/day (Cell M43), so your deficit will take approximately (2208-1441)/(2.96-1.93)=745 days, a touch over 2 years.

 
MarcoDL
beers 7175 º places 209 º 06:56 Tue 10/10/2017

Who knows, the ratings counter is still broken, so you never know whether the numbers are correct.

 
harrisoni
beers 22697 º places 65 º 07:49 Tue 10/10/2017

Looks like I will be falling out of band 1 and going into band 2 sometime soon. I just can't do over 2000 rates a year and keep my
1. Health
2. Rating volume per beer (limited tastings and Danish pints)
3. Bank account in the black
4. Some semblance of a life away from beer

To be honest it's mainly number 2. I could do 400 beers at GBBF but I feel more comfortable with my 100 over the 4 days. Each to his/her own rating method/style.

 
LazyPyro
beers 4254 º places 58 º 08:41 Tue 10/10/2017

Originally posted by FatPhil
The 5M band is creeping forward at 1.9318/day (Cell M43), so your deficit will take approximately (2208-1441)/(2.96-1.93)=745 days, a touch over 2 years.

Ah thanks for that, I knew I was failing somewhere in working out the calculation. I best get drinking then...

 
anstei
beers 3784 º places 87 º 11:08 Tue 10/10/2017

Originally posted by Benzai
How is the pace Phil, still even pace or slowing / speeding?


From the math one would expect this to slow down. Imagine we have only 3 users doing the 1 million, say at 400k, 350k, 250k ratings. To get down to two users, the two top raters would have to get the number of ratings the third one currently has, i.e. 125k each. And once they get to 525k & 375k, to get down to top user doing it, he'd have to do an additional 375k!

Or in other words: The remaining n-1 top raters have to come up for the total number of ratings of the n-th rater. This number increases every time n gets smaller, and also the number of raters gets smaller, so no wonder it takes longer.

 
ebone1988
beers 2500 º places 25 º 13:35 Tue 10/10/2017

Originally posted by harrisoni