How many raters does it take to make a million?

Reads 2374 • Replies 26 • Started Thursday, September 15, 2016 5:45:43 PM CT

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FatPhil
beers 21243 º places 832 º 17:45 Thu 9/15/2016

A continuation of Benzai’s "funny stat" thread here: http://www.ratebeer.com/forums/just-a-funny-stat-i-was-wondering-about_283585.htm , which is now locked.

The answer’s just 61, as of right now (I know, as I entered the critical rating), we just lost kp:

Date: Fri 16 Sep 2016 01:41:29 +0300 (EEST)

#61 Meilby with 10938 takes total from 989062 to 1000000
#184 Idiosynkrasie with 6363 takes total from 1997766 to 2004129
#380 MarcoDL with 4027 takes total from 2998631 to 3002658
#699 armando629 with 2456 takes total from 3998091 to 4000547
#1229 nqualls with 1452 takes total from 4999542 to 5000994

28 days - still no abatement of pace - scary!
KUTGW!

 
Travlr
beers 30304 º places 3520 º 06:55 Fri 9/16/2016

I’m glad to hear we’re not slacking!

 
Travlr
beers 30304 º places 3520 º 06:55 Fri 9/16/2016

But I am interested to see if the number gets down to 1.

 
FatPhil
beers 21243 º places 832 º 08:36 Fri 9/16/2016

I promised some charts a while back - here you go:
http://fatphil.org/tmp/RB_Millions.png

 
Travlr
beers 30304 º places 3520 º 08:42 Fri 9/16/2016

Wow, great graphic. So projecting this out, it may take quite some time to get to 1.

 
FatPhil
beers 21243 º places 832 º 10:48 Fri 9/16/2016

You’d better ask Jan about that - start worrying when he gets to the half-million mark!
The trend-lines won’t match the actual curves, they have to turn upwards eventually. Presently we have ~38 tickers ticking at a rate that the graph blindly predicts is enough to stay in forever, which is clearly impossible. The one-every-28-to-30-days haemorrhage rate predicts that we’ll only have 38 safe tickers for another 61-38 = 23 months.

I will admit that initially I thought I was safe for a long time, but I know my ticking rate will drop, and having now seen 8 people drop out of the elite group, I’m not feeling so secure at all!

 
Benzai
beers 20022 º places 321 º 14:27 Fri 9/16/2016

Superb stat-continuation Phil! Very cool!

 
trapped
beers 6204 º places 372 º 16:31 Fri 9/16/2016

I am not sure the function is linear though, looking at the stay in the band figures, it’s probably more parabolic with getting tighter as you go up the bands.

 
bhensonb
beers 19411 º places 671 º 19:41 Fri 9/16/2016

So the apocalypse is nigh?

 
FatPhil
beers 21243 º places 832 º 12:20 Sat 10/15/2016

Well, Meilby lasted a while, but quite soon Kermis bumped him. But all good things come to an end, and kermis’ time is now over as a millionaire.

Date: Sat, 15 Oct 2016 19:10:18 +0300 (EEST)
#60 Sammy with 11201 takes total from 988812 to 1000013
#180 Idiosynkrasie with 6486 takes total from 1994635 to 2001121
#372 Geiserich with 4135 takes total from 2998725 to 3002860
#682 boxofrane with 2553 takes total from 3998388 to 4000941
#1194 Heathen with 1500 takes total from 4999882 to 5001382

I think that’s only 29 days - there’s some lunatic ticking rate in the to 60!

 
FatPhil
beers 21243 º places 832 º 17:35 Sun 11/20/2016

Sammy got overtaken by kermis to round out the top million, but both are now excess to requirements!

Date: Sun, 20 Nov 2016 19:10:04 +0200 (EET)
#59 kevnic2008 with 11426 takes total from 988603 to 1000029
#177 Hermod with 6621 takes total from 1997505 to 2004126
#364 Palme with 4230 takes total from 2999720 to 3003950
#665 wedgie9 with 2651 takes total from 3999745 to 4002396
#1157 trapez with 1563 takes total from 4999079 to 5000642

35 days, a tad slower than before. Perhaps summer is festival season, and we’re past that now?